Where Will My Balloon Go and Payload Land?

Five Flight Path Prediction tools to help you recover your payload - FREE and Online

When planning a balloon mission, there are many questions that must be considered.  Three key ones include, “Where will the balloon/payload likely land?,” “How difficult is it going to be to recover?,” and  “How will aircraft pilots know to avoid my balloon?” Due to the gracious efforts of dedicated weather forecasters, balloon hobbyists, and academic researchers, there are a handful of great online applications directed at helping to answer these questions.  Generically, these applications are known as flight path prediction tools.

ASTRA High Altitude Balloon Flight Planner

Flight path prediction tools plot a forecast track, from launch site – to high altitude burst – to touchdown, on a Google map. Each tool retrieves wind forecast data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration (NOAA), and is combined with entered data of your balloon launch. The specifics of the user inputs vary by tool, but each tool asks for the launch location coordinates, payload weight, ascending and descending rates. Upon entering the requested data, the modeling tool executes a proprietary algorithm and produces a forecast of the balloon’s trajectory as it ascends, bursts, and descends the atmosphere.

Cambridge University Space Flight Planner

From a practical standpoint, flight path prediction addresses three key concerns: the nature of terrain and road density in the likely landing zone; identifying possible landing area perils; and flight data for the FAA to notify pilots.  By running a series simulations leading up to the launch date, it is possible to craft a launch location strategy that significantly minimizes risks of landing in a town or city, or the vicinity of an airport, or in a lake, river, swamp or expansive forest, or near structures or geography that would make recovery unsafe or difficult. 

S3 Research Flight Predictor

Balloon enthusiasts are using at least one, if not all five flight path prediction tools – each having a unique algorithm and user interface. Of course, no single tool claims to provide pinpoint accuracy -- in fact playing with the various tools with the same flight characteristics provides a sense of variability between the tools. A prudent strategy is to use all five of the tools and plot the touchdown locations to come up with a landing zone.

University of Michigan Flight Prediction

The table summarizes free online balloon flight path prediction tools:

Identity / Tool Name	Web Link	Display Format	Cool Features
S3: Flight Predictor	www.s3research.com/tools/flightpredictor	Google Map	Professional interface; Elevation profile
University of Southampton: Astra	http://astra-planner.soton.ac.uk	Google Map	Professional interface; Multiple Monte-Carlo simulations; Easy external waypoints adds
Cambridge University: Space Flight	http://predict.habhub.org/	Google Map	Professional Interface; Easy to determine waypoint latitude and longitude
University of Wyoming Balloon Trajectory	http://weather.uwyo.edu/polar/balloon_traj.html	List
University of Michigan Flight Prediction	http://vmr.engin.umich.edu/Model/_balloon/index.py	Google Map	Speed vs. Time graph

Edge of Space Sciences (EOSS) also has a Windows-based tool that is used for flight path prediction.  This tool also might be considered in the the mix, if you have a Window-based machine and want to contact them for help.